Stock market fluctuations can have several indirect impacts on the housing market, although the relationship is complex and influenced by many factors. Here’s a concise overview:
Wealth effect: When stocks rise, investors feel wealthier and may be more inclined to purchase homes, potentially driving up housing demand and prices.
Consumer confidence: Stock market performance often influences overall economic sentiment, affecting people’s willingness to make large purchases like homes.
Interest rates: Stock market trends can influence Federal Reserve policy on interest rates, which directly impacts mortgage rates and housing affordability.
Investment alternatives: Some investors view real estate as an alternative to stocks, potentially increasing housing demand when the stock market underperforms.
Corporate profits: Strong stock performance may lead to increased hiring and wages, improving homebuying power for some consumers.
Construction and development: Publicly traded homebuilders and real estate companies may have more capital to invest in new projects when stock prices are high.
Foreign investment: Global stock market trends can influence international real estate investment patterns.
What impact, if any, do these points have on home prices???
Home prices can be impacted in various ways by these points:
Wealth effect: When people feel wealthier due to stock market gains, they may be willing to spend more on housing. This increased demand can drive up house prices.
Consumer confidence: High confidence can lead to more home buyers entering the market, potentially pushing prices up. Conversely, low confidence can reduce demand and prices.
Interest rates: Lower interest rates typically make mortgages more affordable, increasing demand and potentially driving up house prices. Higher rates can have the opposite effect.
Investment alternatives: If real estate is seen as a more attractive investment than stocks, increased demand from investors can push house prices higher.
Corporate profits: Improved economic conditions can lead to wage growth and job creation, allowing more people to afford homes and potentially increasing prices.
Construction and development: Increased building activity can affect supply. In some cases, this might moderate price growth, but in high-demand areas, new luxury developments could raise average prices.
Foreign investment: Increased foreign investment in real estate can drive up prices, especially in desirable urban areas or vacation destinations.
Please Note: These factors interact in complex ways and their impact can vary depending on your local market conditions, economic cycles, and other variables. Which is why you should always consult a Full-Time, Experienced, REALTOR when starting the process to buy or sell a home.
Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening. Some say home prices are heading for a correction, but what do the facts say? Well, it helps to start by looking at what a correction means.
Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says:
“In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don’t have the same established definitions in the housing market.”
In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level.
The Real Estate Market Is Normalizing
From 2020 to 2022, home prices skyrocketed. That rapid increase was due to high demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of homes for sale. But, that kind of aggressive growth couldn’t continue forever.
Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below):
The big takeaway? So far this year, there’s been a much healthier pace of price growth compared to the pandemic.
Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real EstateInvestments, says:
“Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.”
It’s all about supply and demand. Increasing inventory plus limited buyer demand, due to relatively high mortgage rates, will continue to ease some of the upward pressure on prices.
What This Means for You
If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced-out.
While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:
“While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn’t boarded up just yet.”
Bottom Line
At the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out.
As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead.
One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.
The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:
The Rate of Inflation
How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
The Unemployment Rate
Here’s the latest data on all three.
1. The Rate of Inflation
You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.
The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
The Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inmansays:
“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”
So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.
3. The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.
But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):
It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.
What Does This Mean Moving Forward?
While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:
“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”
Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.
Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.
Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.
Bottom Line
Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Let’s connect so you have an expert to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.
If you’re thinking about selling your house, you should know there are buyers who are ready and able to pay today’s high prices. But they want a home that’s move-in ready. A recent press release from Redfin explains:
“Buyers are still out there and they’re willing to pay today’s high prices, but only if the house is in really good shape. They don’t want to spend extra money on paint or new appliances.”
It makes sense when you think about it. They’re having to pay a lot of money for a house in today’s market. That means they may not be able to easily afford upgrades after they move in. So, if your home is outdated or needs some work, buyers might pass it by or offer a lower price than you were hoping for.
And there are a lot of homes that need upgrades right now. Millions are entering their prime remodel years, meaning they’re between 20 and 39 years old. Maybe yours is one of them. According to John Burns Research and Consulting (JBRC), the number of homes in their prime remodel years is high and growing (see graph below):
If your house falls into this category, it’s important to consider making selective updates to help it appeal to buyers, so it sells faster. But how do you know where to spend your time and money?
Why You Need a Real Estate Agent
By working with a local real estate agent to be strategic about the improvements you make, you can be sure you’re making a smart investment. Put simply, not all upgrades are worth the cost. As Bankrate says:
“Before you spend money on costly upgrades, be sure the changes you make will have a high return on investment. It doesn’t make sense to install new granite countertops, for example, if you only stand to break even on them, or even lose money.”
And, as that same Bankrate article goes on to say, that’s where a local real estate agent comes in:
“. . . a good real estate agent will know what local buyers expect and can help you decide what needs doing and what doesn’t.”
Your agent will know what buyers in your area are looking for and what they’re willing to pay for it. By working together, you can avoid spending money on upgrades that won’t pay off. Instead, they’ll fill you in on which changes will make your house more appealing and valuable.
Bottom Line
Selling a house right now requires more than just putting up a For Sale sign. You need to make sure it’s in good condition to attract buyers who are willing to pay today’s high prices.
The way to do that is by making smart improvements that will give you the best return on your investment. Let’s work together so you know what buyers are looking for and what your house needs before selling.
Starting a new business is exciting, but it can also be challenging, especially when you’re also moving homes. If you find yourself in this situation, don’t fret – it’s possible to successfully manage both transitions simultaneously with a bit of planning and organization. In this article shared by Joe Luca, we’ll share some tips to help you make it work.
Shop for Homes Wisely by Determining Your Space Needs
When searching for a new home, it’s essential to determine the amount of space you’ll need to run your business effectively. This includes considering factors such as storage requirements, workspace needs, and any additional equipment or resources that are necessary for your operations. Having a clear idea of how much space you require will help you narrow down your search and focus on properties that meet your specific needs.
Consider Purchasing a Home As-Is to Save Time and Money
If you’re short on time and need to move quickly, consider purchasing a home as-is. These properties may require some renovations or updates, but they can be an excellent option for entrepreneurs who need a move-in-ready office space. Work with real estate professionals like Joe Luca and look for properties that have a designated area for your business, such as a basement, garage, or separate building on the property. Not only will this save you time and money, but it can also allow you to start your business operations sooner rather than later.
Hire a Moving Company
To ensure that your business doesn’t suffer during the move, consider hiring a professional moving company to handle the logistics of the transition. This will free up your time and energy to focus on continuing business operations and maintaining customer relationships. Be sure to communicate your business’s needs and timeline with the moving company so that they can work around your schedule and minimize any disruptions to your operations.
Create a Plan to Stay Organized
To move and start a business at the same time, you need a clear plan and timeline. This will keep you organized and ensure all necessary tasks are completed on schedule. Research potential homes, hire a moving company, set up your office space, and let your customers know about any operational changes. Take it step by step for greater efficiency and ease.
Designate a Space for Your Office
Running a business from home requires separating work and personal life. Choose a designated workspace – a separate room, garage, or shed – to maintain balance. Ensure it’s free from distractions and family activities to stay focused and productive during work hours while still enjoying home life.
Update Your Marketing
Since marketing is the backbone of any business, coming up with effective but affordable ways to spread the word is essential. Luckily, you can market for free via social media – but don’t stop there! You should supplement this with some tried-and-true approaches like business cards, as well. If you aren’t sure how to get started, explore some eye-catching business cards templates that you can customize for free. These are great for providing a tactile reminder of your business to potential clients and customers.
Starting a business and moving at the same time can be overwhelming, but it’s possible to make it work with careful planning and organization. By establishing your space requirements, considering purchasing a home as-is, hiring a professional moving company, using a customer data platform, making a detailed plan and timeline, and choosing a designated workspace, you’ll be well on your way to a successful move and business launch. Remember to take things one step at a time, stay organized, and keep a positive mindset – the rewards of running a thriving business from your dream home are worth it!
Joe Luca is the trustworthy realtor you’ve been looking for. Call (401) 409-5030.
If you’re planning to buy your first home, then you’re probably focused on saving for all the costs involved in such a big purchase. One of the expenses that may be at the top of your mind is your down payment. If you’re intimidated by how much you need to save for that, it may be because you believe you must put 20% down. That doesn’t necessarily have to be the case. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes:
“One of the biggest misconceptions among housing consumers is what the typical down payment is and what amount is needed to enter homeownership.”
“. . . nearly a third of prospective homebuyers think they need a down payment of 20% or more to buy a home. This myth remains one of the largest perceived barriers to achieving homeownership.”
Here’s the good news. Unless specified by your loan type or lender, it’s typically not required to put 20% down. This means you could be closer to your homebuying dream than you realize.
According to NAR, the median down payment hasn’t been over 20% since 2005. In fact, the median down payment for all homebuyers today is only 14%. And it’s even lower for first-time homebuyers at just 6% (see graph below):
What does this mean for you? It means you may not need to save as much as you originally thought.
Learn About Options That Can Help You Toward Your Goal
And it’s not just how much you need for your down payment that isn’t clear. There are also misconceptions about down payment assistance programs. For starters, many people believe there’s only assistance available for first-time homebuyers. While first-time buyers have many options to explore, repeat buyers have some, too.
According to Down Payment Resource,there are over 2,000 homebuyer assistance programs in the U.S., and the majority are intended to help with down payments. That same resource goes on to say:
“You don’t have to be a first-time buyer. Over 38% of all programs are for repeat homebuyers who have owned a home in the last 3 years.”
Plus, there are even loan types, like FHA loans with down payments as low as 3.5% as well as options like VA loans and USDA loans with no down payment requirements for qualified applicants.
If you’re interested in learning more about down payment assistance programs, information is available through sites like Down Payment Resource. Then, partner with a trusted lender to learn what you qualify for on your homebuying journey.
Bottom Line
Remember, a 20% down payment isn’t always required. If you want to purchase a home this year, let’s connect to start the conversation about your homebuying goals.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a house, it’s important to know that it doesn’t just affect your life, but also your community.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a report every year to show how much economic activity is generated by home sales. The chart below illustrates that impact:
As the visual shows, when a house is sold, it can make a big difference in the local economy. The impact comes largely from the workers required to build, update, and buy and sell homes. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains how the housing industry adds jobs to a community:
“The economic impact means housing is a significant job creator. In fact, for every single-family home built, enough economic activity is generated to sustain three full-time jobs for a year, per NAHB research. . . . And one job for every $100,000 in remodeling spending.”
Housing being a major job creator makes sense when you consider there are many different industries involved in the process. A recent article from Fortunenotes housing activity could have a more robust impact than you think due to the many ways it’s tied to the economy:
“Housing has three direct linkages to economic activity (GDP): the construction of new homes, the remodeling of existing homes, and that of housing transactions. . . . consider the activity associated with home sales – think broker fees, lawyers, etc. – which are a sizable contributor to housing’s GDP footprint.”
When you buy or sell a home, you work with a team of professionals, including contractors, specialists, lawyers, and city officials. Each person plays a role in making the transaction happen.
So, when you make a move in the housing market, you’re not just meeting your own needs, you’re also making a positive impact on the community. Knowing this can give you a sense of empowerment as you make your decision this year.
Bottom Line
Each and every home sale is important for the local economy. If you’re ready to move, let’s connect. It won’t just change your life – it’ll also have a strong positive effect on the whole community.
Media coverage about what’s happening with home prices can be confusing. A large part of that is due to the type of data being used and what they’re choosing to draw attention to. For home prices, there are two different methods used to compare home prices over different time periods: year-over-year (Y-O-Y) and month-over-month (M-O-M). Here’s an explanation of each.
Year-over-Year (Y-O-Y):
This comparison measures the change in home prices from the same month or quarter in the previous year. For example, if you’re comparing Y-O-Y home prices for April 2023, you would compare them to the home prices for April 2022.
Y-O-Y comparisons focus on changes over a one-year period, providing a more comprehensive view of long-term trends. They are usually useful for evaluating annual growth rates and determining if the market is generally appreciating or depreciating.
Month-over-Month (M-O-M):
This comparison measures the change in home prices from one month to the next. For instance, if you’re comparing M-O-M home prices for April 2023, you would compare them to the home prices for March 2023.
Meanwhile, M-O-M comparisons analyze changes within a single month, giving a more immediate snapshot of short-term movements and price fluctuations. They are often used to track immediate shifts in demand and supply, seasonal trends, or the impact of specific events on the housing market.
The key difference between Y-O-Y and M-O-M comparisons lies in the time frame being assessed. Both approaches have their own merits and serve different purposes depending on the specific analysis required.
Why Is This Distinction So Important Right Now?
We’re about to enter a few months when home prices could possibly be lower than they were the same month last year. April, May, and June of 2022 were three of the best months for home prices in the history of the American housing market. Those same months this year might not measure up. That means, the Y-O-Y comparison will probably show values are depreciating. The numbers for April seem to suggest that’s what we’ll see in the months ahead (see graph below):
That’ll generate troubling headlines that say home values are falling. That’ll be accurate on a Y-O-Y basis. And, those headlines will lead many consumers to believe that home values are currently cascading downward.
However, on a closer look at M-O-M home prices, we can see prices have actually been appreciating for the last several months. Those M-O-M numbers more accurately reflect what’s truly happening with home values: after several months of depreciation, it appears we’ve hit bottom and are bouncing back.
Here’s an example of M-O-M home price movements for the last 16 months from the CoreLogic Home Price Insightsreport (see graph below):
Why Does This Matter to You?
So, if you’re hearing negative headlines about home prices, remember they may not be painting the full picture. For the next few months, we’ll be comparing prices to last year’s record peak, and that may make the Y-O-Y comparison feel more negative. But, if we look at the more immediate, M-O-M trends, we can see home prices are actually on the way back up.
There’s an advantage to buying a home now. You’ll buy at a discount from last year’s price and before prices start to pick up even more momentum. It’s called “buying at the bottom,” and that’s a good thing.
Bottom Line
If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices, or if you’re ready to buy before prices climb higher, let’s connect.
“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”
“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”
The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence
These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.
The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed
However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months.
In a report just released, Goldman Sachsexplained:
“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”
Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:
Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.
Bottom Line
When the forecasts of significant home price appreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.
Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.
Oops! Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All
During the fourthquarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:
Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:
“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”
“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”
“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”
The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence
These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.
The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed
However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months.
In a report just released, Goldman Sachsexplained:
“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”
Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:
Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.
Bottom Line
When the forecasts of significant home price appreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.
Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.
CupOfJoeLuca 